Morning Market Preview for September 12th, 2024

Let’s dive in:

Cryptocurrency Market

• Bitcoin: Bitcoin has been a standout performer, reaching new all-time highs and showing a year-to-date increase of approximately 42.23%. This surge is attributed to several factors, including the anticipation and eventual approval of Bitcoin ETFs, which has brought a wave of institutional investment into the crypto market. The Bitcoin halving event, expected to reduce the supply of new Bitcoins entering the market, has also contributed to its price appreciation.
• General Sentiment: The crypto market has seen increased mainstream acceptance, with a growing correlation between Bitcoin and traditional financial markets like the S&P 500, indicating its integration into broader investment portfolios. The market's expansion is further evidenced by the projected growth of the worldwide cryptocurrency market, expected to hit $51.5 billion in 2024.

Real Estate

• Market Dynamics: Real estate has experienced mixed fortunes. Globally, the market is projected to grow, with residential real estate dominating. However, in terms of performance, real estate ETFs have seen declines, with a notable decrease of about -4.03% year-to-date. This could be attributed to shifts in work patterns, with remote work reducing demand for commercial spaces in urban centers, while suburban and rural properties see increased interest.
• Cryptocurrency Influence: There's an emerging trend where cryptocurrencies are influencing real estate transactions, with properties being priced in or purchased with digital currencies. This integration suggests a future where real estate might be more closely tied to the crypto market's volatility and growth.

Traditional Markets

• Stock Markets: The S&P 500 and other major indices like the Dow Jones and NASDAQ have hit all-time highs, reflecting a robust economic recovery and optimism. Sectors like technology, communication services, and utilities have led the gains, driven by technological advancements, particularly in AI, and the ongoing digital transformation across industries.
• Sector Performance: Technology stocks, buoyed by AI and big data, have seen significant increases, with companies like NVIDIA leading the charge. Conversely, sectors like real estate and long-term bonds have underperformed, reflecting broader economic shifts towards technology and away from traditional asset classes.

Economic Context

• Inflation and Interest Rates: Inflation has shown signs of cooling, influencing expectations around Federal Reserve actions. This has led to a cautious optimism in markets, with investors balancing between growth stocks and more defensive sectors.
• Global Influences: The economic performance has been influenced by global factors, including geopolitical tensions and economic policies, which have introduced volatility but also opportunities, especially in sectors like technology and commodities.

Conclusion

The year-to-date performance in 2024 highlights a market adapting to new economic realities, with cryptocurrencies playing a more significant role, not just as an investment but as a transactional medium in real estate. Traditional markets continue to thrive, driven by technological innovation and economic recovery, though with a nuanced performance across different sectors. This landscape suggests a diversification of investment strategies, embracing both the digital asset boom and traditional market

Built for The One in the Arena

Arena Investor is on a mission not only to help with financial planning, and investment management, but also with education. Keep reading, watching, following, and sharing great Arena Investor content. And as always if you want professional advice, we are glad to be your teammate – along a financial journey you can actually enjoy.

You’re the Hero.
    We’re the Guide.

Note: Growth in a national economy is measured in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). If GDP goes up 3%, then the economy grew 3%. When GDP is adjusted for the effects of inflation it is called Real GDP. So, Real GDP is the better measure of whether or not a country's economy is growing.

It wasn’t going well in Europe for a while

In Europe, there was little to no quality of life improvements economically for the general population for hundreds of years between the collapse of the Roman Empire and the formation of capitalist nations in the 1800s. 

Since capitalism and the Industrial Revolution, a 1-2% Real GDP growth rate has occurred in most countries. But, before the formation of capitalist nations institutions of many types were formed, which were essential in developing and sustaining market economies. For instance, printing and the press became an institution after Gutenberg's press was invented; this allowed the promotion of ideas further and more consistently than by voice alone.

The spreading of good ideas and best practices was critical to the world economy.

Real GDP growth enables increased standards of living for masses of people 

Note: This has historically been true for those individuals and states (countries) that have been able to fully participate.

To determine a country’s standard of living, Real GDP is divided by the number of people in a country to get Real GDP/person. There is an index of goods and services used to calculate Real GDP, and the population of a nation is determined during the census by counting everyone. 

There are other economic ways to measure standard of living too, but they correlate highly (match closely) with Real GDP/person, so economists continue to use Real GDP and make decisions with it. 

Since Real GDP/person is good and useful, but not perfect, it is important to add in additional measurements to determine the healthiness and desirability of an economy. The number of measurements is really endless. Perhaps we will write more about them in the future.

There are economic trade-offs

In economics, there are trade-offs like there are in health care. For instance, there are “side effects” that are observed in economics. 

Healthy economies are not simple. But remember, it is within the complexities and inconsistencies that opportunities live — so if you want investment opportunities you need an environment you can trust (the market goes up over time), but is also dynamic (but it is an up-and-down climb along the way).

What is Nominal GDP?

Aside from Real GDP economists also use Nominal GDP, which is a measure of the dollar value of goods (such as iPhones) and services (such as Apple Music) sold. 

Nominal GDP does not consider inflation. If you want inflation considered you use Real GDP.

Note: When you see or hear “Real” used in economic terms it means that inflation has been considered in that number or statistic.

So how do economists do their work? 

One way they do their work is by measuring GDP in two consecutive years. The first year they consider “a basket of items” or “a basket of goods” (maybe it’s milk, eggs, coffee, rent, sweaters, etc.) and add them up. This basket helps economists calculate the CPI (Consumer Price Index). This is then called the base year.

The next year they evaluate a basket of goods and see if it costs more or less. If it costs more then there is inflation. (If it costs less then there is deflation.) If it costs 2% more then there is 2% inflation. So when economists measure current prices it is called Nominal GDP, and when they measure versus base year prices it is called Real GDP since it considers inflation. This process can get complicated, but those are the basics.

Economists don’t stop there

They don’t just want to know if we had a good year of growth, and an increase in standard of living. They want to compare it against many countries and across time. After all, if you had 2% growth and Mantanistan (a made up country) had 5% growth, you should evaluate why. You may have felt good about your 2% until you realized you missed a lot of growth that others were experiencing. This is a major concept to understand as an investor:

Putting it into perspective 

It is not simply about if you are up or down, but moreso it’s about whether or not you maximize your gains without exceeding your comfort level.

Similarly, economists look around to see if the economy maximized its performance relative. In the US, it is also important to do so because the US economy is so dynamic, global, and intertwined that looking around helps you see opportunity or avoid economic problems.

Measuring GDP across countries

Measuring GDP across time is done by using Real GDP, as mentioned. Measuring GDP across countries is done by comparing Real GDPs with each other. To do so you would need to determine if that other country is presenting an accurate Real GDP. Remember, there is a basket of items to be measured.

When looking at data from another country are there items that were not counted in the base year, but then counted in the next year? That could present the world with a Real GDP that is higher than it really is. For this reason and others, investors get shy about investing around the world, and if they do they set limits on how much of their money they will invest abroad. That’s wise. 

Investors (and economists) need accurate data

If they feel like the data is questionable, they invest less in those countries – or they’d be wise to use much more caution. Heck, there are investors that only invest in one industry! Maybe they are experts in that industry and only feel comfortable investing there.

With standard of living the increases compound

Even small differences in Real GDP make a big difference in standards of living because the increased standards of living compound. So it turns into gains on top of gains on top of gains. Countries that have even 5% Real GDP growth will double the size of their economy in 14 years. Wow. Now investors start looking abroad again. Ensure the associated risk (Is their data accurate?) versus reward (Their economy will be 2x’d in just 14 years!) is suitable for your financial situation though.

The Penn World Tables

economically.

Historically, there have been shifts in which countries and regions have had the biggest and most powerful economies. After the fall of the Roman Empire, China became the economic leader; during the 1600s Europe transitioned to becoming the economic leader; during the 1800s the UK became the economic leader; and during the 1900s the US became the economic leader. Nowadays, the US, China, and the EU are the 3 biggest economies, but India is set to pass the EU by 2030.

If you go abroad as an investor, do so in a suitable way for your financial situation – and perhaps keep India in view as you look.

Built for The One in the Arena

Arena Investor is on a mission not only to help with financial planning, and investment management, but also with education. Keep reading, watching, following, and sharing great Arena Investor content. And as always if you want professional advice, we are glad to be your teammate – along a financial journey you can actually enjoy.

You’re the Hero.
    We’re the Guide.

Navigating taxes can be daunting, whether you're new to managing your finances or you’ve been doing it for decades. A fundamental concept to grasp is your "Tax Rate," which significantly influences financial planning and decisions. This article will guide you through the basics of understanding your tax rate, its importance, and how it affects your financial well-being

What is a Tax Rate?

Simply put, a tax rate is the percentage at which your income or property is taxed by the government. In the United States, the federal income tax system is progressive, meaning the rate increases as your income increases. These rates are applied only to your taxable income, which is your gross income minus any deductions or exemptions you're eligible for.

Types of Tax Rates

1. Marginal Tax Rate: This is the rate at which your last dollar of income is taxed. It's important because it affects how much tax you'll pay on additional income if your income increases.

In other words, as your income enters higher brackets due to increases, each additional dollar earned will be taxed at a higher rate. Understanding your marginal tax rate is essential for effective financial planning because it determines the tax impact of additional income, such as bonuses, raises, or earnings from a side job. This rate essentially dictates how much of each new dollar earned will go to taxes, influencing decisions about investments, additional work, and tax strategy adjustments to potentially lower your overall tax burden.

2. Effective Tax Rate: This rate is the average rate you pay on all your taxable income. It's calculated by dividing the total tax you pay by your total taxable income.

3. Capital Gains Tax Rate: If you sell an asset like stocks or property for more than you paid for it, the profit is subject to capital gains tax, which can have different rates than ordinary income. There are short-term capital gains taxes for investments held less than a year; and there are long-term capital gains taxes for investments held for a year or more. Long-term capital gains tax have been taxed less (at a lower rate) than short-term capital gains.

Why Understanding Your Tax Rate is Important

1. Financial Planning: Knowing your marginal tax rate helps you understand how much of any additional income will be taken as tax. This is crucial for planning investments, raises, or starting a side business. An Arena Investor Advisor can help you make decisions about how to manage your income.

2. Tax Efficiency: By understanding your effective tax rate, you can make more informed decisions about deductions and credits to minimize your tax liability, essentially letting you keep more of your money.

3. Investment Decisions: Different investments are taxed differently. For instance, long-term capital gains are taxed at a lower rate compared to ordinary income. Knowing your tax rates helps you plan your investment strategies to maximize after-tax returns. Your Arena Investor Advisor can monitor your investments and advice which ones will incur long-term capital gains tax and which will incur short-term capital gains tax.

How an Arena Investor Advisor Can Help

1. Personalized Tax Planning: An Arena Investor Advisor can help tailor a tax plan that fits your unique financial situation. They can guide you on how to take full advantage of tax credits, deductions, and tax-advantaged investments based on your tax rate.

2. Strategic Investment Advice: Our advisors can also help you understand which investments are more tax-efficient and how to structure your portfolio to minimize taxes and maximize returns. This includes deciding between investment in Roth IRAs or traditional IRAs based on your current and expected future tax rates. Please be aware that you can have both a Traditional IRA and a Roth IRA, and they can be funded in a strategically wise way.

3. Regular Updates and Adjustments: Tax laws change frequently, and keeping up can be challenging. Your Arena Investor Advisor will monitor these changes and advise you on how any new tax laws affect your finances.

4. Educational Support: Arena Investor Advisors ensure you understand the why and how behind the strategies they recommend. This includes explaining complex tax concepts in simpler terms, ensuring you're informed and confident in your financial decisions.

5. Technology Integration: Using advanced tools from industry-leading app and platforms, your Arena Investor Advisor can provide visualizations and simulations showing how different tax strategies can impact your financial future. This helps make the abstract concepts of tax planning more tangible and understandable.

All In All

Understanding your tax rate is more than just knowing how much you owe. It’s about strategically managing your finances in a way that reduces your tax liabilities and aligns with your overall financial goals. Whether you’re just starting out or looking to refine your financial strategies, working with an Arena Investor Advisor can provide the expertise and support you need to navigate the complexities of tax planning effectively.

By embracing the guidance of a skilled advisor who is leveraging robust financial tools, and presenting simple solutions to you, you can achieve a deeper understanding of your tax obligations and opportunities, leading to better financial health and peace of mind.

Built for The One in the Arena

Arena Investor is on a mission not only to help with financial planning, and investment management, but also with education. Keep reading, watching, following, and sharing great Arena Investor content. And as always if you want professional advice, we are glad to be your teammate – along a financial journey you can actually enjoy.

You’re the Hero.
    We’re the Guide.