Reviews
5 min read

Review of "The Little Book of Economics: How the Economy Works in the Real World"

Published on
August 29, 2024

Overview

This gem by Greg Ip is by far our favorite book about economics. Ip has an awesome sense of humor that really speaks to a lot of people because it keeps you engaged. His style is fun, easy to read, and easy to understand. He uses a lot of great examples to make his point, which drastically improves retention. I can walk around and talk about economics, or hear it discussed in the news and know what is meant after reading this book. You really don’t need another economics book, although more good ones are indeed out there. If you read just one economics book, this is it.

Note: Students, read this book first, then read your assigned books – give yourself a head start, an advantage.

Let’s dive in

First and foremost, we noticed that Greg Ip puts a healthy check on the government. He definitely supports the government's role in economics though. “This is not a book for PhD Economists, but for the citizens – the investors on Main Street,” he opens. And he sticks to that. It describes how China was economically at the top of the world pre-Industrial Revolution, but squashed private enterprise. In turn, its people were poorer in 1952 than in 1820. He wisely points out that one overcomes the law of diminishing returns with ideas, and he calls for “better recipes, not more cooking.” In this way, China let itself down. 

He points out that GDP comes down to population and productivity. The business cycle suffers from viruses that make it sick, but we can inoculate ourselves and keep GDP growing. But the trouble is that viruses mutate, so responses need to keep adapting. He feels that post-war economic expansions, however, were all “murdered” by the Federal Reserve (the Fed), not natural causes. He specifically calls out Reg Q here. He also calls out how the Fed raised rates before inflation broke out and slashed them before growth crumbled. In this way the Fed tried to create “soft landings.” Something it still does today. Something I am personally in favor of. 

Ip describes recessions too, and how defining them is an art for some and a science for others. The NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) for instance declares recessions after the fact, so “it’s about as useful as an autopsy report is for an EMT.” Funny guy. He notes that data-wise, business cycles (here) average 5 years. Short ones are about 2 years, long ones are about 11 years (1990-2001). And they typically end when an industry boom busts and brings the rest of the economy down with it.

The 4 Engines of GDP

He describes well 4 engines of GDP: consumer spending, business investment, government spending, and exports. He notes that two-thirds of GDP is consumer spending, which acts as a ballast and steadies the economy – except for housing which is volatile and 5% of GDP. It’s no surprise that after 9/11 President Bush reassured people to keep living and spending

For business investment, inventories are the biggest quarterly variable, but buying, leasing, or building buildings and equipment also drives GDP. He points out that for investors the biggest driver within business is the sales outlook from analysts. If sales are down or projected to be down, then business investment’s contribution to GDP slows. 

Government spending accounts for 20% of GDP per Ip. (A quick search shows it currently at 30%, but spending is up recently so his data passes a simple sanity check.) He cites things such as “tanks and teachers” as being major players in government spending’s upward push of GDP. Funny guy. 

Lastly, exports. Export data comes mainly from the BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis), the US Census, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and some Fed data. He points out that since 1982 the number of Americans that want to work grew 42%! To me that’s amazing, but also fits the “latch-key kids” narrative we grew up with (when kids would let themselves inside their house after school because no parent was home since both parents began working). He also notes that jobs since 1982 have grown 47%, and that the two statistics move together

He points out that “the income ladder has grown much taller but the distance between rungs has grown bigger too.” Data-wise the high earners correspond with education and skill levels, but the top 1% is not education-based. And that the top 1% represents 24% of all income, which is the highest rate since 1928. This is both good and bad in our opinion. It is the result of new age robber barons, who create jobs… and shows that we have been down this road before. But there are economic problems with stretching out incomes, economic problems with re-compressing it too quickly or forcefully, and economic problems with ignoring it. All in all, timely and appropriate action is key to creating soft landings, instead of hard landings.

Inflation and money supply

Ip goes into detail about inflation and money supply too. He points out that printing doesn’t equate to inflation, which most people think. To make the point he says that $1-trillion dollars printed and put under your mattress doesn’t create inflation. As unlikely as it is for 100% of printed money to be held and not circulated, he makes a good economic point. 

We’d add that this is part of the concern with China holding massive amounts of US dollars; the US government operates with the money in circulation, but what if massive amounts were quickly released? Ip continues and explains how “voters hate inflation” more than unemployment. He gives examples of how the former gets people voted out of office but the latter less so. Also of note, he points out that a bit of inflation is stabilizing, but too much is destabilizing.

Deflation is covered too, and Ip describes it as destructive. In the US, inflation wasn’t a problem during The Great Depression, but unemployment and deflation were.

Ip writes really well about imports and exports. He discusses comparative advantage and its role in international trade. He points out that since 1950 global trade has outpaced world GDP by 50%, or 6% versus 4%, and even US exports moved from 5% to 11% of GDP in that time. We are exporting more and it’s a larger percent of our GDP than it was in 1950. But we import more too now. 

It’s the relationship between importing and exporting nowadays that concerns people. When giving an example of comparative advantage, Ip points out how households import a nanny’s services from abroad (aka outside the household) so that they can go to work. So the import of the child-watching service enables more production because it is cheaper than doing it yourself (cheaper than not working).

Ip describes imports and exports as one of the few economic topics that is straightforward. Yet it remains controversial, nonetheless. He estimates that 25% of our jobs could be done offshores, and that this idea terrifies people. Astutely, he then points out the importance of our infrastructure and legal system. They are critical because they make it worth keeping jobs inside the US. You may be able to do a job overseas at a lower cost, but how risky and complicated is it at that point? Companies tend to overdo or underdo their overseas endeavors

For whatever reason it is tough for them to keep properly balanced, likely because the more abroad you go the more dynamic things get, which creates vulnerabilities in supply chains, management, diplomacy, and so on.

He points out how trade can reward the top and erode the middle class. For instance, Apple is rich, but the jobs needed to make their products are lost to the US middle class. So it ends up as a net plus, but if the middle class evaporates then that effect is worse than the gain because it alters our fiber and complicates our economics. Interestingly, no one company really feels at fault for the erosion of the middle class, similar to how no one contributor of the GFC (Great Financial Crisis) felt guilty and few were held accountable

Everyone was just playing their part in a very big thing. We see how an industry bubble can form, pop, and pull the entire economy down. Ip finishes this section by saying that voters don’t like imports en masse because the negatives are obvious and the positives aren’t. So you have obvious negatives competing with obscured, nuanced, or second-order positives. 

There are actually a lot of examples of how a gross net positive does not work for individuals because it is not a positive for them personally. A government (economy) is not a household, as the saying goes.

Currencies

Greg Ip describes current accounting deficits (aka financing deficits) well too. He explains that current accounting deficits means one must borrow or sell assets, but that action enables investment opportunities that exceed the value or usefulness of saving.

He describes how driving down one’s own currency value boosts exports, and that China used to have excess savings (from a governmental, macroeconomic point of view) but eventually boosted its exports by buying US Treasuries, which strengthened the US dollar by “retiring it” and therefore weaken Chinese currency relative to the US dollar. That buying also spent the “excess” Chinese savings, drove down the value of the Chinese currency (Yuan) and therefore improved exports (as the value of your currency means either imports or exports are more attractive). You have to decide which game you want to be in. China chooses exports and therefore devalues its currency, while the US chooses imports (remember comparative advantage) and therefore boosts its currency’s value

Why doesn’t everyone use comparative advantage? 

Because not every household, or government, is rich enough to spend on X (nanny) in order to earn more Y (income). What if there were very few high-income jobs? Would you have one? If not, you aren’t playing this “import” game. Interestingly, in countries with few high income jobs it is actually a social expectation that you hire nannies and “import” similar jobs because you are a job creator, and therefore a socio-economic enabler. 

Back to currencies though. 

Ip states that the USD (US dollar) is like a boring mutual fund for an ordinary household, and is therefore the world currency. And since countries like to take USD, we finance things easily. This is just one way in which money makes money and having the reserve currency of the world is critical to the US economy. And the US staying stable is, in turn, critical to the world economy. You want the world currency to be under the tutelage of a stable nation, not a flash in the pan or a gamble.

The Fed

Ip describes several mistakes the Fed has made, which we will not go into here. He describes them well, and it is important for us to understand (and the Fed too) so we can avoid them. By and large, the Fed does learn well. But there are always new mistakes to be made. By studying the past mistakes, Ip shows us how it is possible to distill fundamental economic truths. At that point, there’s no excuse for violating one of those truths. If the Fed is to make mistakes moving forward, it should only be in new, unexplored circumstances – not fundamental errors like during The Great Depression. The Fed has power; FOMC meetings move the market for a reason ("Investors, don't fight the Fed" as the saying goes.

Hawk and dove bankers are described pretty well by Ip. He shares that in the banking world “Only hawk bankers go to central banker heaven.” Funny guy. That’s the feeling in that circle at least. Hawkish bankers are tight with their actions, more likely to dissent, and care far more about inflation than unemployment. Doves are the opposite. It’s not just war that has hawks and doves, but economics too.

Overall, the Fed tries to target 1.7-2% inflation by measuring growth, unemployment, and inflation. Ip points out how Ben Bernanke did well overall in that regard, and describes Bernanke as a Great Depression buff, like there are Civil War buffs. Ip says Bernanke disliked the Fed’s excessive orthodoxy during The Great Depression, felt more action (and more liberal action) was needed sooner, but disliked FDR’s New Deal. Simply put, Bernanke felt the Fed missed and then the president missed in response, which exacerbated and prolonged The Great Depression.

Ip describes the Federal Funds Rate, the Fed as a lender of last resort, and discretionary spending versus entitlement spending. Each of these is covered well, easy to read, and easy to understand. Merely his poignant description of how US government borrowing is like an elephant pushing up long-term interest rates and crowding-out private investing is worth the price of the book. 

There are pros and cons to government borrowing, but they have major impacts that are important to understand as an investor. Basically, the US government borrowing abroad is far better for everyone in the US because they aren’t crowded-out, and Uncle Sam gets his borrowing complete. 

Another very poignant point Ip makes is that if the US borrowing is mainly abroad then inflation is mainly the rest of the world’s problem. A full two-thirds of inflation is at the expense of the rest of the world (when two-thirds of government borrowing is outside the US). Obviously this is both good and bad depending on how you look at it. But it's important to know as an investor. It gives you insight into the health of the US and world economic health.

Oh the leverage!

Lastly, we'll mention Ip’s coverage of leverage. He describes leverage this way: “Leverage is like speed in a crash, and as a crisis hits the more leverage involved the more damage.” See, he paints pictures. He's easy to read, and easy to remember. There are amazing advantages of leverage (labor, money, technology, media are all leveraged to great benefit) but when a household, business, industry, sector, or an entire economy begins to wobble… measure their leverage and decide how far away you need to get as an investor from an upcoming crash!

“The Little Book of Economics: How the Economy Works in the Real World” was fantastic, and we hope you can tell how much we loved it.

Built for The One in the Arena

Arena Investor is on a mission not only to help with financial planning, and investment management, but also with education. Keep reading, watching, following, and sharing great Arena Investor content. And as always if you want professional advice, we are glad to be your teammate – along a financial journey you can actually enjoy.

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5 min read

Understanding Burn Rate

Regardless of your income you need to know your Burn Rate to optimize your finances and enjoy peace of mind – so you can actually enjoy the journey!

In personal finance, the term "Burn Rate" may not be as commonly discussed as budgets or savings, but it’s equally crucial. Especially suited for individuals looking to get a grasp on their financial health and spending efficiency, understanding your Burn Rate provides essential insights. This guide, designed for beginners and enhanced with expertise from Arena Investor Advisors, simplifies the concept of Burn Rate and illustrates how it can be a pivotal tool in managing your finances.

What is Burn Rate?

Burn Rate in personal finance measures the ratio of your estimated annual spending (excluding debt payments) to your total annual income. This metric helps you understand what percentage of your income is consumed by regular expenses, helping gauge how efficiently you are using your financial resources. Essentially, it's an indicator of how quickly you’re "burning through" your income on non-debt expenses each year.

Importance of Understanding Your Burn Rate

1. Efficiency in Spending: Knowing your Burn Rate helps identify how much of your income is going towards everyday expenses. A lower Burn Rate means more of your income is either being saved or invested, which is crucial for financial growth and stability.

2. Financial Planning and Budgeting: By understanding your Burn Rate, you can make informed decisions about where adjustments may be needed in your spending habits or income streams to improve financial health.

3  Preparing for the Future: Managing your Burn Rate effectively ensures that you are saving enough to meet future financial goals, whether it's buying a home, investing in education, or planning for retirement.

How to Calculate Burn Rate

To calculate your Burn Rate, subtract any debt payments from your total estimated annual spending, then divide this number by your total annual income. Multiply the result by 100 to get a percentage. For example, if your annual spending (minus debt payments) is $40,000 and your total annual income is $100,000, your Burn Rate is 40%. This means 40% of your income is used for regular expenses, excluding debt repayment.

How an Arena Investor Advisor Can Help

1. Personalized Analysis: An Arena Investor Advisor starts with a detailed assessment of your income and expenditures to calculate your Burn Rate accurately. This analysis serves as the foundation for personalized financial advice.

2. Strategic Budgeting: Depending on your Burn Rate, your Arena Investor Advisor might suggest strategies to optimize it. This could involve advice on reducing unnecessary expenditures, increasing income, or reallocating funds more efficiently between saving, spending, and investing.

3. Regular Updates and Financial Adjustments: Financial situations can evolve, so regular monitoring of your Burn Rate is essential. An Arena Investor Advisor will help keep your financial strategies aligned with changes in your income or spending patterns.

4. Educational Support and Guidance: For newcomers to financial management, comprehending and applying financial metrics like Burn Rate can be daunting. Arena Investor Advisors ensure you understand each element of your financial plan, empowering you with the knowledge to make sound decisions.

5. Technology Integration: Using advanced tools, industry-leading apps and platforms, your Arena Investor Advisor can visualize your financial data for you, so it’s easier to see, understand, and act upon. These tools help clarify how changes in your Burn Rate affect your overall financial health.

All In All

Understanding and managing your Burn Rate is essential for effective financial planning and maintaining economic stability. With the guidance of an Arena Investor Advisor, you can ensure that your spending is efficient, and your savings and investment strategies are on track to meet your financial goals. By monitoring and adjusting your Burn Rate regularly, you can achieve a balanced financial lifestyle that not only meets current needs but also secures your future.

Working with Arena Investor provides you with the expertise and tools necessary to navigate your financial journey with confidence, ensuring that every decision moves you closer to your long-term financial aspirations.

Built for The One in the Arena

Arena Investor is on a mission not only to help with financial planning, and investment management, but also with education. Keep reading, watching, following, and sharing great Arena Investor content. And as always if you want professional advice, we are glad to be your teammate – along a financial journey you can actually enjoy.

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5 min read

Understanding Tax Rate

Are you paying too much in taxes? Most people are missing deductions, investments, and other ways to properly reduce your tax burden. Let’s help you build a tax plan – so you can actually enjoy the journey!

Navigating taxes can be daunting, whether you're new to managing your finances or you’ve been doing it for decades. A fundamental concept to grasp is your "Tax Rate," which significantly influences financial planning and decisions. This article will guide you through the basics of understanding your tax rate, its importance, and how it affects your financial well-being

What is a Tax Rate?

Simply put, a tax rate is the percentage at which your income or property is taxed by the government. In the United States, the federal income tax system is progressive, meaning the rate increases as your income increases. These rates are applied only to your taxable income, which is your gross income minus any deductions or exemptions you're eligible for.

Types of Tax Rates

1. Marginal Tax Rate: This is the rate at which your last dollar of income is taxed. It's important because it affects how much tax you'll pay on additional income if your income increases.

In other words, as your income enters higher brackets due to increases, each additional dollar earned will be taxed at a higher rate. Understanding your marginal tax rate is essential for effective financial planning because it determines the tax impact of additional income, such as bonuses, raises, or earnings from a side job. This rate essentially dictates how much of each new dollar earned will go to taxes, influencing decisions about investments, additional work, and tax strategy adjustments to potentially lower your overall tax burden.

2. Effective Tax Rate: This rate is the average rate you pay on all your taxable income. It's calculated by dividing the total tax you pay by your total taxable income.

3. Capital Gains Tax Rate: If you sell an asset like stocks or property for more than you paid for it, the profit is subject to capital gains tax, which can have different rates than ordinary income. There are short-term capital gains taxes for investments held less than a year; and there are long-term capital gains taxes for investments held for a year or more. Long-term capital gains tax have been taxed less (at a lower rate) than short-term capital gains.

Why Understanding Your Tax Rate is Important

1. Financial Planning: Knowing your marginal tax rate helps you understand how much of any additional income will be taken as tax. This is crucial for planning investments, raises, or starting a side business. An Arena Investor Advisor can help you make decisions about how to manage your income.

2. Tax Efficiency: By understanding your effective tax rate, you can make more informed decisions about deductions and credits to minimize your tax liability, essentially letting you keep more of your money.

3. Investment Decisions: Different investments are taxed differently. For instance, long-term capital gains are taxed at a lower rate compared to ordinary income. Knowing your tax rates helps you plan your investment strategies to maximize after-tax returns. Your Arena Investor Advisor can monitor your investments and advice which ones will incur long-term capital gains tax and which will incur short-term capital gains tax.

How an Arena Investor Advisor Can Help

1. Personalized Tax Planning: An Arena Investor Advisor can help tailor a tax plan that fits your unique financial situation. They can guide you on how to take full advantage of tax credits, deductions, and tax-advantaged investments based on your tax rate.

2. Strategic Investment Advice: Our advisors can also help you understand which investments are more tax-efficient and how to structure your portfolio to minimize taxes and maximize returns. This includes deciding between investment in Roth IRAs or traditional IRAs based on your current and expected future tax rates. Please be aware that you can have both a Traditional IRA and a Roth IRA, and they can be funded in a strategically wise way.

3. Regular Updates and Adjustments: Tax laws change frequently, and keeping up can be challenging. Your Arena Investor Advisor will monitor these changes and advise you on how any new tax laws affect your finances.

4. Educational Support: Arena Investor Advisors ensure you understand the why and how behind the strategies they recommend. This includes explaining complex tax concepts in simpler terms, ensuring you're informed and confident in your financial decisions.

5. Technology Integration: Using advanced tools from industry-leading app and platforms, your Arena Investor Advisor can provide visualizations and simulations showing how different tax strategies can impact your financial future. This helps make the abstract concepts of tax planning more tangible and understandable.

All In All

Understanding your tax rate is more than just knowing how much you owe. It’s about strategically managing your finances in a way that reduces your tax liabilities and aligns with your overall financial goals. Whether you’re just starting out or looking to refine your financial strategies, working with an Arena Investor Advisor can provide the expertise and support you need to navigate the complexities of tax planning effectively.

By embracing the guidance of a skilled advisor who is leveraging robust financial tools, and presenting simple solutions to you, you can achieve a deeper understanding of your tax obligations and opportunities, leading to better financial health and peace of mind.

Built for The One in the Arena

Arena Investor is on a mission not only to help with financial planning, and investment management, but also with education. Keep reading, watching, following, and sharing great Arena Investor content. And as always if you want professional advice, we are glad to be your teammate – along a financial journey you can actually enjoy.

You’re the Hero.
    We’re the Guide.

Insights & Ideas
5 min read

A Brief Description of The Investor Mindset

Build upon a foundation of learning, independent thinking, emotional poise, seeing trends, and being financially ready.

We can use different mindsets for different conditions

There are a number of personality types. One type is the transactional individual. A highly transactional person seeks mostly transactional relationships and interactions. And they seek out “the process” because they like to understand a system or a network and leverage it. Like many things, this is a spectrum. Some people are somewhat transactional and some are purely transactional. A transactional personality leads to a transactional mindset. Typically, a transactional mindset means you are looking for something in return. This for that. 

There are pros and cons to transactional mentalities and relationships. Perhaps you are not very transactional, but you have a transactional relationship with someone. For instance, “When Mike and I get together, we drink a coffee and talk about sports.” It’s a true friendship, but it’s transactional. So just because an individual’s personality, or a particular relationship, is a this-for-that one doesn’t make it good or bad. It is what it is. 

But if you were in a sales position, you would be wise to add transactional skills.

Beware though: If you are not a transactional person naturally, then there is a certain amount of friction that occurs when you act transactionally. Decide if that’s okay for you. 

You’re almost certainly adding skills and participating in the workplace in ways that create some friction for you already. When there’s too much friction though, you want to quit your job or change your field. But having a transactional skill set can be valuable when under the right conditions. Most times people think of personalities as set, and that may be correct. But you can certainly add skills that transactional people naturally have.

So what’s “The Investor Mindset” then?

The Investor Mindset, briefly, is what investor-types use. You may already know the people in your life that think and act like investors naturally. Some of their characteristics are: analytical, delayed gratification and thinking long, re-investing, builders or curators, value-measurers, value-adders

These are pretty positive characteristics. Again, like many things, it is a spectrum. If you are so analytical that you cannot make a decision, that is bad. You don’t want “paralysis by analysis,” as they say. 

Another thing to watch out for is delaying gratification too much. Someone who overdoes this may become unhappy. Perhaps it is useful when managing money, but it isn’t great if you overuse it in your life. What if you never eat a cookie? It sounds funny when talking about cookies, but be careful about persistently delaying gratification. Discipline is great, but find appropriate treats for yourself too along your journey

So whether the previously described investor characteristics come naturally to you or not, you want to treat it like a skill, and use it when appropriate.

At Arena Investor we use “The Investor Mindset” to help us perform our jobs well serving financial planning and investment management clients, as well as providing financial education.

Simply put, The Investor Mindset treats almost everything like a portfolio and only things that make that portfolio better should go in it. At Arena Investor this can mean: stocks, crypto, ETFs, mutual funds, bonds, real estate and so on.

But The Investor Mindset can be used at large too – well beyond finances. For instance, it can also apply to nutrition, fitness, friendship, your subscription TV “watch later” list, and on and on. Investor-types don’t naturally take-on things that don’t make their portfolio better. At a minimum, they try to decide if it is on-par with what they already like, or better. If it is sub-par then good luck talking them into doing it.

A Lot of People Can Relate to This Already

Believe it or not, a lot of people can relate to this as sports fans. Good luck convincing a Cleveland Browns fan that the Arizona Cardinals vs the Seattle Seahawks fits their “entertainment portfolio.” They may watch because they like football at large, but they aren’t truly invested in that game. It isn’t as good or better than their AFC North matchups against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals, or Baltimore Ravens. They believe those matchups do make their entertainment portfolio better though.

The suggestion is this:Add “The Investor Mindset” to your life. You don’t have to re-create yourself and try to be someone you’re not though. Simply start to see the world with Investor-tinted glass a bit more each day. 

It can help you get started as an investor too

Perhaps you’ve wanted to invest for a long time now. But you are afraid to get started. With The Investor Mindset realize that an empty portfolio would be made better with one quality company in it.

Now you’ve started. 

And you’ve used The Investor Mindset – you upgraded your portfolio!

Do that a second time, and continue until you are diversified.

Remember: You only want to put stocks into your portfolio that make it better. So say you want to build a portfolio of 10 stocks. Well at the beginning you are really just laying a foundation. Don’t lay a crappy foundation

If you wouldn’t leave the portfolio alone for 5 years and be happy with your picks with minimal intervention (say, less than once per quarter), then do not add that stock. 

But remember, while we say stock we really mean company. You should be happy with the company you pick for 5+ years. You should believe in it, the work it does, the role it plays, and be able to sleep at night. That way, you will get through the ups and downs that The Business Cycle (here) intrinsically experiences. 

Be sure to think long when you build the foundation. You wouldn’t swap out parts of your foundation every day, week, or month would you? Perhaps over time you make an upgrade though because it makes sense.

“The Investor Mindset” is large and encompassing. So is a transactional mindset. But you can use the skills that naturally come with those mindsets to your advantage. And you don’t have to become a different person to do it. Pick something in your life to try out The Investor Mindset on. At the start of the new year health and wealth are at the top of many people’s minds already. Maybe choose one of those. Nutrition is a great way to add it to your life: Does this thing I’m about to eat or drink make my body-portfolio better or worse? 

Note: There’s a key difference with nutrition though in that a splurge for an hour on a Friday night isn’t as long-lasting as a financial splurge or investing splurge – that money is spent indefinitely.

Built for The One in the Arena

Arena Investor is on a mission not only to help with financial planning, and investment management, but also with education. Keep reading, watching, following, and sharing great Arena Investor content. And as always if you want professional advice, we are glad to be your teammate – along a financial journey you can actually enjoy.

You’re the Hero.
    We’re the Guide.

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