Understanding Savings Rate

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Key Economic Reports

• Today's spotlight is on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which will provide insights into inflation trends. Investors are keenly watching for any signs that might influence the Federal Reserve's future rate decisions. Expectations are for a slight uptick in the core PCE, which could either bolster or challenge the narrative of a soft economic landing.

5 Key Earnings Reports

• Dell Technologies reported earnings that beat expectations, signaling strong demand in enterprise solutions.
• Autodesk also outperformed, reflecting robust growth in software subscriptions.
• Lululemon saw a dip in comparable sales, but overall earnings were solid, indicating continued consumer interest in athleisure.
• Marvell Technology and MongoDB both reported earnings that surpassed forecasts, with MongoDB particularly shining with a significant beat, suggesting strong adoption in the database market.

The Fed

• While there's no direct Fed action today, the PCE data will be crucial for setting expectations for the next Fed meeting. The market anticipates a rate cut in September, and today's data could either reinforce or challenge this expectation.

Stocks

• U.S. stock futures are up, buoyed by positive earnings and anticipation around economic data. The tech sector, in particular, seems to be finishing the week on a high note, with several companies reporting robust results.

Bonds

• Bond yields might see some volatility with the PCE data release. If inflation shows signs of reacceleration, yields could rise, affecting bond prices inversely.

Crypto

• Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum have been reacting to broader market sentiment and regulatory news. Today, with focus on U.S. economic health, crypto markets might see increased volatility if the data surprises either way.

Gold

• Gold prices are slightly down, reflecting a cautious market ahead of the PCE release. A higher inflation reading could push gold prices up as a hedge, but for now, gold is steadily treading water.

Real Estate

• Real estate markets continue to watch interest rate movements closely. Any indication of prolonged higher rates could dampen real estate activity, while hints of rate cuts might spur more buying interest.

Geopolitical Aspects

• Global tensions, including trade talks and geopolitical conflicts, continue to influence markets. Today, markets are relatively calm on this front, with no major new developments reported that could sway investor sentiment significantly.

Worldwide News

• Europe is dealing with its own economic recovery, with eyes on how the U.S. economic health might impact global trade.
• Asia has been navigating through post-COVID recovery, with tech exports from countries like South Korea and Taiwan influencing market sentiments.

Simple Explanations of Key Concepts to Level Up Your Financial Education

• PCE Price Index: This measures the prices paid by consumers for goods and services, giving a broad view of inflation. Think of it like a shopping cart price check for the whole country.
• Earnings Reports: Companies announce how much profit they made in the last quarter. If they make more than expected, their stock might go up because investors are happy.
• The Federal Reserve (Fed): They control interest rates, which affect borrowing costs. Lower rates can make borrowing cheaper, potentially boosting spending and investment.
• Stocks: When you buy a stock, you're buying a piece of a company. If the company does well, your stock might be worth more.
• Bonds: These are like IOUs from companies or governments. They pay you interest over time, but if interest rates go up, new bonds might offer better rates, making old bonds less attractive.
• Crypto: Digital currencies like Bitcoin. They're not controlled by governments and can be very volatile, meaning their prices can swing a lot.
• Gold: Often seen as a safe investment when economies are shaky. It's like a financial insurance policy against economic downturns.
• Real Estate: Buying property. Prices can go up if lots of people want to buy, or down if interest rates rise, making loans more expensive.
• Geopolitics: How countries interact can affect markets. Wars, trade deals, or sanctions can lead investors to move money around for safety or profit.

This overview should help you navigate today's market landscape, whether you're a seasoned investor or just starting to understand the financial world's intricacies.

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Good morning, Heroes!

Here’s your Morning Market Preview for September 18th, 2024
Read, or listen relaxingly for a few minutes – whichever you prefer!

Key Economic Reports

• Housing Starts, previously 1.24 million, and the market expects 1.31 million in this report.
  
  
• Building Permits, previous 1.4 million, with an expected 1.41 small uptick.
  
  
• FOMC Interest Rate Decision, expected at 2:30pm Eastern.

Key Events & Earnings Reports Today

• Steelcase and Sang Technologies report today, but all eyes are on the Fed.
  
  
• Boeing is in the middle of a strike, and the company has frozen hiring and is discussing furloughs as well. The strike began on September 13th.

The Fed

• Today is the day we likely get our first rate cut since The Fed began hiking rates in March 2022. It was the fastest rate hike in American history. The market hasn’t seen a rate cut since March 2020.

Stocks

Year-to-Date Performance:

• Up Most: Although down just a bit in the last day, Tech leads the pack, up 25.01% this year. Utilities was also down just a tad, but is still the second-best on the year year, up 24.08%.
  
  
• Down Most: Important: no sectors are negative on the year. The smallest gain has been in Energy, up 3.05% this year. Second-to-last is now Consumer Discretionary, up 8.73% this year.

5 Day Moving Average: 

• Up Most: 100% of Energy Large Cap stocks are now above their 5 day average. Materials is close to the top position too, with 96% of its Large Caps above their 5 day average.
  
  

• Down Most: Real Estate stocks have had a bad 5 days, and only 26% of Large Caps are above their 5 day average. Next closest is Health Care at 49%.
  
  
• Overall, investors are trying to position themselves ahead of The Fed’s decision, and in light of some data that the economy is slowing.

Crypto

• Bitcoin: Over the past day, it is up about $60,155, which puts it at a staggering 43% gain on the year.
  
  
• Ethereum: It’s been a good day for Ethereum, and is up to about $2,358, which means a 2.15% gain on the year.
  
  
• Top Gainers Recently: Uniswap is up most as of this report, 7.14% on the day.
  
  
• Important to note: Crypto markets are always open and prices change constantly.

Bonds

• 2-Year Treasury Yield:  At 3.599%, it has continued its yield decline this year.
  
  
• 10-Year Treasury Yield: At 3.644%, it also continues its yield decline this year.

Gold

• Price: Gold was down about 50 basis points the last day, now about $2,569 per ounce, up 24.57% on the year.

Real Estate

• 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate: Down just a bit, now to 6.11%. The mortgage rate has dropped about 8.4% this year.

Geopolitical Aspects

• Tensions in key oil-producing regions impacting energy markets, with potential for new trade agreements influencing global economic stability.
  
  
• Europe: Economic recovery post-COVID, with a focus on green initiatives is affecting various industries.
  
  
• Asia: Growth in tech sectors, while facing challenges from supply chain disruptions due to geopolitical issues continues.

Built for The One in the Arena

Arena Investor is on a mission not only to help with financial planning, and investment management, but also with education. Keep reading, watching, following, and sharing great Arena Investor content. And as always if you want professional advice, we are glad to be your teammate – along a financial journey you can actually enjoy.

You’re the Hero.
    We’re the Guide.

P.S. 

Some Simple Explanations of Key Concepts to Level Up Your Financial Education

• Economic Reports: These are snapshots of the economy's health. For instance, Retail Sales show consumer spending, crucial for economic growth. Industrial Production indicates manufacturing strength.
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• Federal Reserve (The Fed): This is like the economy's central bank in the U.S. They control interest rates, influencing borrowing costs, which can affect everything from your mortgage to stock prices. A rate cut typically means they want to stimulate economic activity.
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• 1 Basis Point (BPS) equals 0.01%. And here's why this is useful:

• Precision: Financial changes are often tiny. For example, if an interest rate goes from 3.50% to 3.51%, that's an increase of just 0.01%, or 1 basis point. It's easier to say "1 basis point" than "point zero one percent."
• Clarity: When discussing changes, especially small ones like those in interest rates, basis points avoid confusion. Imagine discussing if a rate changed by 0.1% or 0.01% over the phone. Saying "10 basis points" or "1 basis point" is clear.
• Consistency: It's a universal standard in finance. Whether you're talking about stock returns, bond yields, or central bank rates, basis points keep the conversation standardized.

Each of these elements interacts, creating the dynamic we call 'the market'.

Understanding these aspects of the investing arena can help investors in making informed investment decisions.

You’re the Hero.
    We’re the Guide.

Good morning, Heroes!

Here’s your Morning Market Preview for September 6, 2024
Read, or listen relaxingly for a few minutes – whichever you prefer!

Key Economic Reports:

• US Unemployment Rate for August: Due at 8:30am, 4.3% was the previous rate, and expectations are at 4.2% for August. This report will be the key factor for The Fed’s decision to keep or cut rates, and if they cut by how much.
• US Nonfarm Payrolls: Also due at 8:30am, the previous report showed 114,000 additions, and expectations are that payrolls grew to 164,000 additions.
• Federal Reserve Member Waller is scheduled to speak today at 11am. 

Key Earnings Reports Today:

• Fridays are traditionally light on earnings calls, and today is no different. But Bg Lots reports today, and here’s why that’s important:
• Market Sentiment Indicator: Big Lots, as a major closeout retailer, often reflects broader consumer spending trends, particularly among middle-income households. Its performance can signal how discretionary spending is faring, which is crucial for understanding overall retail health.
• Retail Sector Benchmark: Given the retail sector's volatility, Big Lots' earnings provide insights into how discount retail strategies are holding up against economic pressures like inflation, supply chain issues, and shifts in consumer behavior.

The Fed:

• Next Meeting: Scheduled for September 17th and 18th. Expectations are split between lowering rates and maintaining rates, with a hawkish outlook on inflation.

Stocks:

• Top Performing Sectors: Utilities is at 77% and Consumer Staples are at 66% of companies below their 5 day average price.
• Bottom Performing Sector the Last 5 Days: Real Estate is at 48% and Consumer Discretionary is at 35%  of companies below their 5 day average price.

Crypto:

• BTC: Current price $56,023, up 33.61% this year
• ETH: Current price $2,363, up 2.84% this year

Bonds:

• 2-Year Treasury Yield: Open at 3.745%.
• 10-Year Treasury Yield: Open at 3.734%

Gold:

• Open Price: $2520 per ounce, up 22.12% this year, reflecting safe-haven buying amid geopolitical tensions.

Real Estate:

• 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate: 6.35%, down 4.8% this year
• Trends: Shift towards more affordable housing markets, with a notable increase in remote work affecting urban vs. suburban preferences.

Geopolitical Aspects:

• Tensions in Eastern Europe: Ongoing conflicts continue to affect energy prices and market stability.
• US-China Relations: Trade talks influence tech and manufacturing sectors.

Worldwide News:

• Europe: ECB's potential rate hike decision looms, impacting Eurozone markets.
• Asia: Strong economic recovery in China boosts global commodity prices.

Built for The One in the Arena

Arena Investor is on a mission not only to help with financial planning, and investment management, but also with education. Keep reading, watching, following, and sharing great Arena Investor content. And as always if you want professional advice, we are glad to be your teammate – along a financial journey you can actually enjoy.

You’re the Hero.
    We’re the Guide.