Current Events
5 min read

Morning Market Preview for September 23th, 2024

Published on
September 24, 2024
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Arena Investor is modern planning and investing built for the busy, hardworking professionals who know their money needs more attention but don't have the time, or simply want better work-life balance

Good morning, Heroes!

Here’s your Morning Market Preview for September 23th, 2024
Read, or listen relaxingly for a few minutes – whichever you prefer!

Key Economic Reports

  • At 9:45 am US Services PMI and US Manufacturing PMI report, monthly reports that give insight into service and manufacturing activity.

Key  Earnings Reports & Events Today

  • AAR Corp, Red Cat Holdings, and Phoenix Motors have their earnings calls today.

  • Boeing’s strike continues, and the company has furloughed thousands of workers. Mechanics are saying they are ready for a long strike. The strike began on September 13th.

The Fed

  • The Atlanta, Chicago, and Minneapolis Fed Presidents speak today, giving insight into the last Fed rate cut and possible insight moving forward for Mr Market.

Stocks

Year-to-Date Performance:

  • Up Most: Tech is now up 27.44% this year. Utilities is second-best on the year, up 25.61%.

  • Down Most: Important to know, no sectors are negative on the year. The smallest gain has been in Energy, up 5.69% this year. Second-to-last is Materials, up 9.59%.

5 Day Moving Average: 

  • Up Most: 86% of Energy Large Cap stocks are now above their 5 day average. Tech is second now with 76% of its Large Caps above their 5 day average.

  • Down Most: Real Estate is down, and only 26% of Large Caps are above their 5 day average. Next closest is Health Care with 32% of Large Caps above their 5 day average. 

Crypto

  • Bitcoin: Up big recently, now over $63,000, which puts it at a staggering 52% gain on the year.

  • Ethereum: It’s been a good couple of days for Ethereum again, and is nearly $2,600 now, which means a 12.5% gain on the year.

  • Top Gainers Recently: Bitcoin and Litecoin have performed well recently, up about 2.2 to 3.3% in the last day.

  • Important to note: Crypto markets are always open and prices change constantly.

Bonds

  • 2-Year Treasury:  Yields continue to come down, now at 3.597%.

  • 10-Year Treasury: Up a tick to 3.741%, but overall it’s had a decline this year too.

  • The yield curve is no longer inverted, having un-inverted in late August, 2024.

Gold

  • Price: Gold has had a great year, now over $2,600 per ounce, and up 27% on the year.

Real Estate

  • 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate: Up just a bit, now to 6.15%. The mortgage rate has dropped about 7.8% this year.

Geopolitical Aspects

  • Europe: Continued recovery with a focus on green energy, impacting commodity markets.

  • Asia: Economic rebound in China post-COVID, influencing global manufacturing and tech sectors.

  • Global Tensions: Ongoing trade negotiations and regional conflicts could sway investor sentiment, particularly affecting oil prices and defense stocks.

Built for The One in the Arena

Arena Investor is on a mission not only to help with financial planning, and investment management, but also with education. Keep reading, watching, following, and sharing great Arena Investor content. And as always if you want professional advice, we are glad to be your teammate – along a financial journey you can actually enjoy.

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    We’re the Guide.

P.S.

Continue reading, if you would enjoy some simple explanations of key concepts to level up your financial education

Each of these elements interacts, creating the dynamic we call 'the market'.

Understanding these aspects of the investing arena can help investors in making informed investment decisions.

You’re the Hero.
    We’re the Guide.

  • PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index): This is like a health check for businesses. A number above 50 means more growth, below 50 indicates contraction. It's crucial because it shows if companies are buying more stuff, which suggests they're confident about future sales.
  • Economic Reports: Data like jobless claims help predict economic health. For instance, rising claims might suggest economic slowdown.
  • Jobless Claims: These are weekly reports that show the number of people filing for unemployment benefits. Higher numbers can indicate a weakening labor market.
  • Housing Starts: This measures the number of new residential construction projects and is a key indicator of real estate market health.
  • The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index measures consumer confidence through surveys, reflecting optimism or pessimism about personal finances and business conditions.
  • Federal Reserve Rate Decisions: The Fed adjusts interest rates to either stimulate the economy (by lowering rates) or control inflation (by raising rates). Rate cuts can make borrowing cheaper, while rate hikes aim to curb inflation.
  • Treasury Yields: The return on U.S. government bonds, often used as a measure of investor sentiment about future inflation and economic growth.
  • Stock Sectors: Different sectors thrive in different economic conditions. Tech might boom during innovation, while energy could struggle with green shifts.
  • Bonds and Yields: Bonds are safer than stocks but yield reflects risk or inflation expectations. Higher yields could mean investors demand more return.
  • Cryptocurrency: Digital currencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum have been volatile but offer significant returns in 2024.
  • Gold: A traditional safe-haven investment that often rises during times of uncertainty or when inflation is high.
  • Real Estate: Influenced by rates, economic health, and demographic trends. Lower rates can inflate home prices due to increased buying power.
  • Mortgage Rates: Higher rates make borrowing more expensive, which can cool down housing demand and affect real estate prices.
  • 1 Basis Point (BPS) equals 0.01%. It’s easier to say “5 bips” than it is to say “zero point zero five percent.”
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News In The Arena
5 min read

Announcement: Arena Investor Partners with Stripe

Enhancing Secure and Seamless Transactions

We are excited to announce our latest integration with Stripe, a global leader in payment processing, to further enhance the security, reliability, and ease of transactions on ArenaInvestor.com. This partnership is a key addition to our tech stack, ensuring that every transaction our clients make is handled with the highest standards of security and efficiency.

Why Stripe?

Stripe is renowned for its industry-leading payment solutions, offering secure and seamless transaction processing for businesses around the world. With a reputation for innovation and reliability, Stripe is trusted by millions of companies to handle their financial transactions securely and efficiently. By integrating Stripe into Arena Investor’s platform, we are providing our clients with a trusted and modern payment experience that aligns perfectly with our commitment to delivering cutting-edge financial services.

Secure and Seamless Transactions

The integration of Stripe into Arena Investor’s tech-stack means that all transactions you make—whether purchasing Financial Planning services, Financial Health Monitoring & Alerts services, Portfolio Checkup services, or receiving any necessary refunds—are processed with the utmost security. Stripe’s advanced fraud prevention tools, encryption protocols, and secure payment methods ensure that your financial information is always protected. This partnership allows us to offer you a seamless, hassle-free experience when managing your investments or making payments through our platform.

Trusted by Millions, Now at Arena Investor

Stripe’s technology is trusted by some of the largest companies in the world, and we are proud to bring that same level of trust to our clients at Arena Investor. Whether you’re a new client or a long-time client, you can now enjoy the peace of mind that comes with using a secure, globally recognized payment processor. The buying experience on ArenaInvestor.com is now more streamlined than ever, making it easier for you to focus on what truly matters—your financial growth and success.

A Modern Advisory Experience

At Arena Investor, we believe that a modern advisory should be built on a foundation of technology that people know, love, and trust. The integration of Stripe into our platform is a reflection of this belief. We are committed to using the best tools available to create an experience that is efficient and secure. With Stripe, we are not only enhancing the quality of our services but also ensuring that our clients have access to the most reliable and modern financial tools available.

Looking Ahead

We are thrilled about the benefits this partnership with Stripe will bring to our clients and are excited to continue innovating and improving the services we offer. As always, our goal is to provide you with the best possible experience, and we believe that this integration is a significant step in that direction.

Thank you for trusting Arena Investor with your financial needs. If you have any questions about how Stripe will enhance your experience, please don’t hesitate to reach out to us.

Truly,
The Arena Investor Team

Built for The One in the Arena

Arena Investor is on a mission not only to help with financial planning, and investment management, but also with education. Keep reading, watching, following, and sharing great Arena Investor content. And as always if you want professional advice, we are glad to be your teammate – along a financial journey you can actually enjoy.

You’re the Hero.
    We’re the Guide.

5 min read

Understanding Qualified Term

Reduce your current tax bills, and ensure you have a sufficient retirement plan – so you can actually enjoy the journey!

When it comes to financial planning, managing your "Qualified Term" is not only about preparing for a comfortable retirement but also about strategically reducing your current tax liabilities. This term essentially measures how long your retirement assets can sustain your lifestyle. Here's a detailed explanation of how optimizing your Qualified Term can lead to tax savings now while also securing your financial future.

What is Qualified Term?

The Qualified Term is a financial metric that evaluates the sustainability of your retirement savings based on your current lifestyle and planned retirement spending. It helps you understand how many years your retirement assets, such as 401(k)s or IRAs, can support you post-retirement, taking into consideration your annual withdrawal rate and the expected growth of your investments.

Immediate Benefits: Reducing Tax Bills

1. Pre-Tax Contributions: Contributing to qualified retirement plans like a traditional 401(k) or IRA allows you to make pre-tax contributions, which reduce your taxable income. By maximizing these contributions, you can lower your current tax bill significantly. Simply put: Every dollar you contribute to a qualified retirement account reduces your taxable income by that amount. If you make $75,000 and contribute $12,000 then your taxable income is reduced to $63,000.

2. Tax-Deferred Growth: Investments in these accounts grow tax-deferred, meaning you don't pay taxes on the earnings until you withdraw them, potentially at a lower tax rate in retirement. This can result in substantial tax savings over the course of your career.

3. Tax Credits and Deductions: Depending on your income and how much you contribute, you may also qualify for additional tax credits or deductions. These benefits enhance the immediate financial advantages of strategic retirement planning.

Long-Term Advantages: Secure Retirement Planning

1. Ensuring Sufficient Retirement Funds: Understanding and managing your Qualified Term helps ensure that your retirement savings are sufficient to support your desired lifestyle for many years post-retirement.

2. Strategic Withdrawal Planning: An optimal Qualified Term involves planning the timing and amount of withdrawals from your retirement accounts to ensure financial stability in retirement while minimizing tax liabilities.

How an Arena Investor Advisor Can Optimize Your Qualified Term

1. Tailored Financial Strategies: An Arena Investor Advisor can develop personalized strategies that optimize both your immediate tax benefits and long-term financial goals. They can help determine the right contribution levels to your qualified accounts to maximize tax efficiency now and sustainability later.

2. Adapting to Financial Changes: Life events and financial markets ebb and flow. Your financial advisor will monitor changes and adjust your plan as necessary, ensuring that your Qualified Term remains aligned with your evolving financial situation.

3. Educational Support: For newcomers to financial planning, understanding the nuances of qualified accounts, tax implications, and retirement planning can be overwhelming. Your Arena Investor Advisor will provide clear, jargon-free explanations and ongoing education to empower your financial decision-making.

4. Advanced Planning Tools: Utilizing sophisticated planning tools from industry-leading apps and platforms , Arena Investor Advisors can illustrate various scenarios and strategies, showing you how different approaches affect your Qualified Term and tax liabilities.

All In All

Your Qualified Term is a critical element in your financial strategy, impacting both your current tax situation and your future financial security. By effectively managing this term, you're taking a proactive approach to reduce your immediate tax burden while ensuring a stable, financially secure retirement.

With the expert guidance of an Arena Investor Advisor, tailored to your unique financial needs and goals, you can navigate the complexities of tax planning and retirement with confidence, ensuring that you make the most of your financial resources today and tomorrow.

Built for The One in the Arena

Arena Investor is on a mission not only to help with financial planning, and investment management, but also with education. Keep reading, watching, following, and sharing great Arena Investor content. And as always if you want professional advice, we are glad to be your teammate – along a financial journey you can actually enjoy.

You’re the Hero.
    We’re the Guide.

Current Events
5 min read

Morning Market Preview for September 12th, 2024

Read, or listen relaxingly for a few minutes – whichever you prefer!
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Good morning, Heroes!

Here’s your Morning Market Preview for September 12th, 2024
Read, or listen relaxingly for a few minutes – whichever you prefer!

Key Economic Reports

  • Initial Jobless Claims: The market consensus forecasts Initial Jobless Claims at 229,000. This is slightly up from the previous week's actual figure of 227,000, suggesting a modest increase in new unemployment claims.

  • Producer Price Index (PPI): This indicator measures wholesale inflation and is closely watched by investors and economists for signs of upstream price pressures on the companies that produce for consumers further down the line.

  • Core PPI: Analysts and market observers expect a monthly increase of 0.2% for the Core PPI, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy. This expectation reflects a continuation of moderate inflation pressures from the production side. 

Key Events & Earnings Reports Today

Adobe

  • Expectations: The consensus expects Adobe to report revenue around $5.37 billion, showcasing a 10% year-over-year growth, driven by strong performance across its product lines, particularly in Creative Cloud and Document Cloud due to AI integration.

  • Importance: The report will be crucial for investor sentiment, especially in the context of Adobe's strategic moves towards AI. Positive results could reinforce confidence in Adobe's strategic direction, potentially leading to stock price increases.

The Fed

  • The Fed's next meeting is scheduled for the 17th and 18th and expectations are that the Fed will cut rates. The market expects a quarter percent cut, but some think a half percent cut and even no cut are possible. Ultimately, the Fed decides and the market reacts, so don’t guess with any significant amount of money. 

Stocks

Year-to-Date Performance:

  • Up Most: Utilities & Information Technology continue to have the best 2024 at 20.85% and 20.74%, respectively.

  • Down Most: Materials has now just barely replaced Consumer Discretionary as the second worst sector in 2024, and Energy continues its last place position, up 5.75% and 1.40%, respectively. Of note, the worst sector is still up this year.

5 Day Moving Average: This is the percent of Large Cap stocks above their 5 day average

  • Up Most: Real Estate is at 90% the last 5 days, and Tech is at 84%.

  • Down Most: Energy is down to 5% the last 5 days with Consumer Staples now at just 11%, marking a significant downward shift the last 5 days.

Crypto

  • Bitcoin: Up to about $57,969 at the open, and is up a whopping 36.85% this year.

  • Ethereum: Also up, at about $2,381 at the open, and is up a modest 1.67% this year.

  • Top Gainers Recently: Bitcoin Cash and Cardano had a good 24 hours, up 3.7% and 2.52% respectively.

Bonds

  • 2-Year Treasury Yield: Open at 3.65%, continuing its yield decline this year.

  • 10-Year Treasury Yield: Open at 3.658%, also continuing its yield decline this year.

Gold

  • Open Price: $2,516 per ounce, up again, now up a whopping 21.8% this year, driven by safe-haven buying amid economic uncertainties.

Real Estate

  • 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate: Down again, now to 6.11%, the rate has dropped about 8.4% this year.

  • Trends: Real estate is local, and each market is seeing different specific conditions. Some report high-end home sales staying strong while others report a weakening there and an improvement in affordable housing sales.

Geopolitical Aspects

  • The sentiment around US leadership, including how it handles international relations, trade wars, and domestic policies like inflation control, impacts investor confidence. Discussions around strategic petroleum reserves, border issues, and political stability can lead to market reactions.

Worldwide Market News

  • Global markets are reacting to concerns about China’s slowing economic growth and energy price fluctuations, while ongoing conflicts and trade disputes add further uncertainty.

Built for The One in the Arena

Arena Investor is on a mission not only to help with financial planning, and investment management, but also with education. Keep reading, watching, following, and sharing great Arena Investor content. And as always if you want professional advice, we are glad to be your teammate – along a financial journey you can actually enjoy.

You’re the Hero.
    We’re the Guide.

P.S. 

Some Simple Explanations of Key Concepts to Level Up Your Financial Education

PPI: Measures the average change in selling prices received by producers, helping gauge future consumer price changes.

Fed Meeting: The Federal Reserve adjusts interest rates to control inflation and stimulate or cool down the economy.

Treasury Yields: Higher yields indicate that the government is paying more to borrow money, often a sign that inflation or interest rates are rising.

Equities: Stocks represent ownership in a company. Sectors like tech can be volatile but often offer high growth potential, while sectors like utilities are more stable but less growth-oriented.

Cryptocurrencies: Digital currencies like Bitcoin are highly speculative but have delivered strong gains this year.

Gold: Seen as a safe-haven asset, it tends to rise during times of economic uncertainty.

Real Estate: Changing mortgage rates make buying homes more or less expensive, which can cool off or heat up the housing market.

Understanding these elements helps in navigating the financial markets, where each piece of information can be a puzzle piece in predicting market movements or making informed investment decisions.

You’re the Hero.
    We’re the Guide.

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