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5 min read

Morning Market Preview for September 26th, 2024

Published on
September 26, 2024
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Good morning, Heroes!

Here’s your Morning Market Preview for September 26th, 2024
Read, or listen relaxingly for a few minutes – whichever you prefer!

Key Economic Reports

  • Tons of economic reports today. Let’s dig in:

  • At 8:30am Initial Jobless Claims reports, previously 219,000, expected to be up to 223,000.

  • Also at 8:30am Durable Goods Orders reports, previously 9.8%, expected to be down big to -3.0%.

  • The GDP Second Revision for Q2 is at 8:30am as well, previously 3.0%, expecting 3.0%.

  • At 10:00am Pending Home Sales reports, previously -5.5%, expecting an increase to 1.0%.

Key  Earnings Reports & Events Today

  • Costco, Blackberry, Scholastic, and Vail Resorts all report today, with particular attention on Costco for consumer staple spending and Vail for consumer discretionary spending.

  • Boeing’s strike continues, the union dislikes the 30% pay raise offer, and would like the company to stop negotiating in public. The strike began on September 13th. 

The Fed

  • Many Fed representatives speak during the day: Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, Boston Fed President Susan Collins, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, NY Fed President John Williams, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, Fed Governor Lisa Cook, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari. 

Stocks

Year-to-Date Performance:

  • Up Most: Tech is up again, now up 28.35% this year. Communications passes Utilities as second-best on the year, up 25.91%.

  • Down Most: Important to know, no sectors are negative on the year. The smallest gain has been in Energy, down yesterday, up overall to 6.77% this year. Second-to-last is now Real Estate, up 12.04%.

5 Day Moving Average, Percent of Large Caps above their 5 day average:

  • Up Most: Materials and Utilities are at 68%. Consumer Discretionary is second now at 60%.

  • Down Most: Energy is down big, now at 14%. Health Care is down second-most, now at 21%. 

Crypto

  • Bitcoin: Bitcoin down a touch in the last 24 hours, now over $63,200, which puts it at a staggering 50.2% gain on the year.

  • Ethereum: Ethereum is down a bit the last day too at about $2,575, which means an 11.8% gain on the year.

  • Top Gainers Recently: Ox is up 4.7% on the day; Shiba Inu up 4.3%.

  • Important to note: Crypto markets are always open and prices change constantly.

Bonds

  • 2-Year Treasury:  Yields came down a tad, now at 3.561%.

  • 10-Year Treasury: Up a tick again to 3.791%, but overall it’s been coming down this year too.

  • The “spread” is opening, and the yield curve is no longer inverted, having un-inverted in late August, 2024.

Gold

  • Price: Gold prices remain elevated, now up to $2661, and it’s up 28.8% on the year.

Real Estate

  • 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate: Up just a tick, now to 6.19%. The mortgage rate has dropped about 7.2% this year.

Geopolitical Aspects

  • Investors should brace for volatility due to OPEC+ hinting at cuts.

  • US indexes poised for minor adjustments amid Fed's dovish signals on rates.

  • Watch geopolitical noise with Middle East potentially flaring, affecting oil.

  • Gold might seesaw against dollar softness.

  • X chatter buzzes with potential Boeing strike action impacts.

  • Stay alert for reactionary trades. And keep a long-term mindset.

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P.S.

Continue reading, if you would enjoy some simple explanations of key concepts to level up your financial education

Each of these elements interacts, creating the dynamic we call 'the market'.

Understanding these aspects of the investing arena can help investors in making informed investment decisions.

You’re the Hero.
    We’re the Guide.

  • Initial Jobless Claims: The report measures the number of people who filed for unemployment benefits for the first time during the past week, indicating labor market strength or weakness.
  • Consumer Confidence: The Consumer Confidence report measures how optimistic consumers are about the economy's short-term future, influencing spending and investment decisions. It's based on surveys about income, business, and employment conditions.
  • PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index): This is like a health check for businesses. A number above 50 means more growth, below 50 indicates contraction. It's crucial because it shows if companies are buying more stuff, which suggests they're confident about future sales.
  • Economic Reports: Data like jobless claims help predict economic health. For instance, rising claims might suggest economic slowdown.
  • Jobless Claims: These are weekly reports that show the number of people filing for unemployment benefits. Higher numbers can indicate a weakening labor market.
  • Housing Starts: This measures the number of new residential construction projects and is a key indicator of real estate market health.
  • The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index measures consumer confidence through surveys, reflecting optimism or pessimism about personal finances and business conditions.
  • Federal Reserve Rate Decisions: The Fed adjusts interest rates to either stimulate the economy (by lowering rates) or control inflation (by raising rates). Rate cuts can make borrowing cheaper, while rate hikes aim to curb inflation.
  • Treasury Yields: The return on U.S. government bonds, often used as a measure of investor sentiment about future inflation and economic growth.
  • Stock Sectors: Different sectors thrive in different economic conditions. Tech might boom during innovation, while energy could struggle with green shifts.
  • Bonds and Yields: Bonds are safer than stocks but yield reflects risk or inflation expectations. Higher yields could mean investors demand more return.
  • Cryptocurrency: Digital currencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum have been volatile but offer significant returns in 2024.
  • Gold: A traditional safe-haven investment that often rises during times of uncertainty or when inflation is high.
  • Real Estate: Influenced by rates, economic health, and demographic trends. Lower rates can inflate home prices due to increased buying power.
  • Mortgage Rates: Higher rates make borrowing more expensive, which can cool down housing demand and affect real estate prices.
  • 1 Basis Point (BPS) equals 0.01%. It’s easier to say “5 bips” than it is to say “zero point zero five percent.”

Data Sources

Key Economic Reports: https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar
Consumer Surveys: https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/reports.php
Key Earnings Reports: https://www.earningswhispers.com/calendar/
Key Events: https://x.com/i/grok and fact-checking
The Fed: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents.htm
Stocks, Year-to-date Performance: https://digital.fidelity.com/prgw/digital/research/sector
Stocks, 5 Day Moving Averages: https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance#google_vignette
Crypto, Bitcoin: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/BTC.CM=
Crypto, Ethereum: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/ETH.CM=
Crypto, Top Gainers: https://www.cnbc.com/cryptocurrency/
Bonds, 2 Year: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US2Y
Bonds, 10 Year: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y
Gold: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/XAU=
US 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US30YFRM
Geopolitical Aspects: https://x.com/i/grok, https://chatgpt.com, and fact-checking
Simple Explanations: https://x.com/i/grok, https://chatgpt.com, and fact-checking
The article itself is written by Arena Investor humans, not AI
The article audio is generated by https://elevenlabs.io
The article images are generated by https://chatgpt.com using DALL-E

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Current Events
5 min read

Morning Market Preview for September 11th, 2024

Read, or listen relaxingly for a few minutes – whichever you prefer!
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Good morning, Heroes!

Here’s your Morning Market Preview for September 11th, 2024
Read, or listen relaxingly for a few minutes – whichever you prefer!

Key Economic Reports

  • Tomorrow’s market may react to new data regarding U.S. inflation, as investors await further insights into consumer price trends. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and core CPI are set for release, key indicators used to measure inflation. These reports are critical as they will provide insight into how inflation is behaving and influence Fed decision-making.

Key Events & Earnings Reports Today

MIND Technology

  • MIND Technology, Inc. specializes in providing advanced technology solutions primarily to the marine survey, defense, seismic, and security industries.

  • Importance: The earnings report underscores MIND Technology's role not just as a company reporting financials but as a trendsetter in technology adoption, operational efficiency, and market expansion strategies. This makes their earnings not only a reflection of past performance but a predictor of future market trends and investor sentiment in the tech sector.

  • Expectations: Investors and analysts are likely expecting MIND Technology to report on several key metrics including revenue, earnings per share (EPS), and possibly updates on gross margins, given the mention of 77% gross margins in recent discussions. There's an anticipation of continued or improved profitability, especially with hints of cost-cutting measures and operational efficiencies.

The Fed

  • The Fed's next meeting is scheduled for the 17th and 18th. Expectations of whether they will continue or pause rate hikes will depend on tomorrow’s CPI report, which will provide clues on inflation’s trajectory.

Stocks

Year-to-Date Performance:

  • Up Most: Utilities & Information Technology continue to lead the way at 20.32% and 19.27%, respectively.

  • Down Most: Energy and Consumer Discretionary trail all other sectors still at 3.39% and 4.44%, respectively.

5 Day Moving Average: This is the percent of Large Cap stocks above their 5 day average

  • Up Most: Real Estate is at 90% the last 5 days, and Utilities at 74%.

  • Down Most: Energy is down to 14% the last 5 days and by far the biggest laggard.

Crypto

  • Bitcoin: Up to about $57,101 at the open, and is up 36.93% this year.

  • Ethereum: Also up, at about $2,351 at the open, and is up 3.62% this year.

  • Top Gainers Recently: Luna and Zcash are both up a good bit recently at 4.18% and 3.7% respectively.

Bonds

  • 2-Year Treasury Yield: Open at 3.59%, continuing its yield decline this year.

  • 10-Year Treasury Yield: Open at 3.637%, also continuing its yield decline this year.

Gold

  • Open Price: $2,504.85 per ounce, up again, now up 22.07% this year, driven by safe-haven buying amid economic uncertainties.

Real Estate

  • 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate: Around 6.22%, down a bit more than 6% this year.

  • Trends: A cooling market continues its shift towards more affordable housing options.

Geopolitical Aspects

  • Global markets are being influenced by ongoing concerns surrounding U.S.-China relations, with trade and supply chain issues still in focus. Additionally, rising energy prices are a key global concern impacting market sentiment.

Worldwide Market News

  • In global news, China’s economic slowdown continues to be a focal point for investors. Global supply chain disruptions and inflation concerns are still top of mind, influencing commodity prices and corporate earnings.

Built for The One in the Arena

Arena Investor is on a mission not only to help with financial planning, and investment management, but also with education. Keep reading, watching, following, and sharing great Arena Investor content. And as always if you want professional advice, we are glad to be your teammate – along a financial journey you can actually enjoy.

You’re the Hero.
    We’re the Guide.

P.S. Simple Explanations of Key Concepts to Level Up Your Financial Education

CPI: Measures inflation by tracking price changes in everyday goods. A higher CPI suggests rising inflation.

Earnings Reports: Companies release quarterly reports to show profits or losses. Investors look at these to predict future stock prices.

Treasury Yields: The interest rate the government pays to borrow money. Higher yields mean investors expect future inflation or higher interest rates.

Cryptocurrencies: Digital assets like Bitcoin are volatile but can provide high returns. Their value is influenced by market demand and adoption.

Real Estate: Higher mortgage rates make home buying more expensive, which can cool down the housing market.

Understanding these elements helps in navigating the financial markets, where each piece of information can be a puzzle piece in predicting market movements or making informed investment decisions.

You’re the Hero.
    We’re the Guide.

Current Events
5 min read

Morning Market Preview for September 5, 2024

Read, or listen relaxingly for a few minutes – whichever you prefer!
Loading the Elevenlabs Text to Speech AudioNative Player...

Good morning, Heroes!

Here’s your Morning Market Preview for September 5, 2024
Read, or listen relaxingly for a few minutes – whichever you prefer!

Key Economic Reports:

  • ADP Employment Report at 8:15 AM ET will offer insights into private sector job growth, setting the stage for Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls.
  • Initial Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM ET, alongside Productivity and Costs, will provide a snapshot of the labor market's health.
  • S&P Global Services PMI at 9:45 AM ET and ISM Services PMI at 10:00 AM ET will gauge service sector activity, crucial for economic recovery insights.

5 Key Earnings Reports Today:

  • Broadcom (AVGO):
    • Importance: Reflects semiconductor demand, particularly for AI and data centers.
    • Expectations: Analysts predict a 46% year-over-year revenue increase but a decline in net income.
  • NIO (NIO):
    • Importance: Key for EV market trends, especially in China.
    • Expectations: Strong financial results with record deliveries expected.
  • FuelCell Energy (FCEL):
    • Importance: Insights into clean energy tech, impacting future energy solutions.
    • Expectations: Focus on operational efficiency and new project announcements.
  • Samsara (IOT):
    • Importance: Indicates IoT adoption across industries.
    • Expectations: Growth in subscription services and customer base expansion.
  • Smartsheet (SMAR):
    • Importance: Reflects demand for collaborative work management software.
    • Expectations: Continued revenue growth, insights into AI tool adoption.

The Fed:

  • No direct actions today, but market participants will dissect economic data for hints on future rate decisions. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for September 17-18.

Stocks:

  • Markets are cautiously optimistic after recent volatility, with tech stocks in focus due to earnings.

Bonds:

  • 2-Year Treasury Yield Opened at: 3.75%
  • 10-Year Treasury Yield Opened at: 3.755%
  • Bond yields are closely watched as economic data could sway inflation expectations and Fed policy predictions.

Crypto:

  • Bitcoin (BTC): in the $57,000 - $58,000 range, up 34.76% this year.
  • Ethereum (ETH): in the $2,300 - $2,400 range, down from its 50 day moving average of $2972, up 4.46% this year.
  • Top gainers last week included smaller cap altcoins like Solana and Cardano, showing a rotation towards high-risk, high-reward assets.

Gold:

  • Opened at: $2,495 per ounce, up 22.08% this year.
  • Gold prices rose, often seen as a safe-haven investment during times of economic uncertainty or when inflation fears rise.

Real Estate:

  • The current 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate: 6.38%, down 4.35% this year.
  • While not directly reported today, real estate markets are influenced by interest rates, which are closely tied to the Fed's actions and economic indicators like employment.

Geopolitical Aspects:

  • No major geopolitical events directly affecting markets today, but ongoing global tensions could always influence investor sentiment.

Worldwide Market News:

  • APAC markets showed mixed results, with a cautious approach ahead of U.S. economic data, indicating a globally interconnected market sentiment.


And that’s your Morning Market Preview for the day. As always, we wish you a happy, healthy, and fruitful day!

Built for The One in the Arena

Arena Investor is on a mission not only to help with financial planning, and investment management, but also with education. Keep reading, watching, following, and sharing great Arena Investor content. And as always if you want professional advice, we are glad to be your teammate – along a financial journey you can actually enjoy.

You’re the Hero.
    We’re the Guide.

5 min read

Understanding Liquid Term

How long can you sustain your current lifestyle or cover expenses using only your liquid assets without additional income. It’s an important metric to know and understand – so you can actually enjoy your financial journey!

Understanding Liquid Term

When managing personal finances, especially for future goals and emergencies, understanding the concept of "Liquid Term" becomes crucial. This term, though less commonly discussed outside professional financial circles, provides essential insights into the liquidity of your assets and how quickly you can convert them into cash without significant loss. Here’s a detailed explanation of Liquid Term, simplified for those new to finances, and how an Arena Investor Advisor can guide you in optimizing this aspect of your financial planning.

What is Liquid Term?

Liquid Term refers to the measure of how long you can sustain your current lifestyle or cover expenses using only your liquid assets without additional income. 

In simpler terms, it's an estimate of how many months or years you can fund your living expenses using readily available resources if no more money comes in. This measure is crucial during periods of financial adjustment, such as a job change, or unexpected situations like a medical emergency.

Importance of Understanding Liquid Term

1. Emergency Preparedness: Knowing your Liquid Term helps gauge how well-prepared you are for unexpected events. It highlights the importance of having accessible funds that can be quickly mobilized in emergencies.

2. Financial Flexibility: A healthy Liquid Term implies more financial flexibility. It allows you to make choices such as changing careers or moving without the immediate pressure of financial constraints.

3. Investment Decisions: Understanding your Liquid Term can influence your investment strategies. If you have a short Liquid Term, you might prioritize increasing it by investing in more liquid assets to enhance your financial security.

Calculating Liquid Term

To calculate your Liquid Term, you divide your liquid assets by your monthly expenses. Liquid assets include things like cash in checking or savings accounts, stocks, and other marketable securities that can be quickly converted to cash. For example, if you have $30,000 in liquid assets and your monthly expenses are $3,000, your Liquid Term is 10 months.

How an Arena Investor Advisor Can Help

1. Assessment and Planning: An Arena Investor Advisor starts by assessing your current financial situation, including calculating your Liquid Term. They can help you understand what your number means and plan steps to improve it if necessary.

2. Customizing Investment Strategies: Depending on your needs and goals, your advisor might suggest ways to adjust your investment portfolio to improve liquidity without sacrificing long-term growth. This could involve diversifying investments or reallocating assets to include more liquid options.

3. Budgeting and Expense Management: Advisors can work with you to optimize your budget, potentially reducing monthly expenses and extending your Liquid Term. They can offer insights into cost-saving without compromising lifestyle quality too much.

4. Continuous Monitoring and Adjustment: Financial situations evolve, so continuous monitoring is vital. Your Arena Investor Advisor will help update your financial plan based on changes in your life and goals, ensuring that your Liquid Term remains adequate.

5. Educational Support: Understanding financial concepts can be overwhelming. Arena Investor Advisors are dedicated to educating you about key financial indicators like Liquid Term. They ensure you’re equipped with the knowledge to make informed decisions.

6. Utilizing Technology: Tools from industry-leading app and platforms you Arena Investor Advisor's ability to present visual and easy-to-understand representations of your financial data, including Liquid Term assessments. This helps you see and understand your financial health in an easy way. It also helps in making informed, data-driven decisions.

All In All

Liquid Term is a vital aspect of financial health, for both new investors learning to navigate the complexities of personal finance and for established investors too. Understanding and managing this term can significantly impact your financial flexibility and security. Working with an Arena Investor Advisor provides you with expert guidance and tools to optimize your Liquid Term effectively. Together, we can build a simple to understand and use financial plan that not only prepares you for the unexpected but also helps achieve your long-term financial goals.

By approaching your financial planning with a clear understanding of Liquid Term, supported by professional advice and advanced financial tools, you can ensure greater stability and confidence in managing your finances.

Built for The One in the Arena

Arena Investor is on a mission not only to help with financial planning, and investment management, but also with education. Keep reading, watching, following, and sharing great Arena Investor content. And as always if you want professional advice, we are glad to be your teammate – along a financial journey you can actually enjoy.

You’re the Hero.
    We’re the Guide.

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