Morning Market Preview for September 5, 2024

Good morning, Heroes!

Here’s your Morning Market Preview for September 6, 2024
Read, or listen relaxingly for a few minutes – whichever you prefer!

Key Economic Reports:

• US Unemployment Rate for August: Due at 8:30am, 4.3% was the previous rate, and expectations are at 4.2% for August. This report will be the key factor for The Fed’s decision to keep or cut rates, and if they cut by how much.
• US Nonfarm Payrolls: Also due at 8:30am, the previous report showed 114,000 additions, and expectations are that payrolls grew to 164,000 additions.
• Federal Reserve Member Waller is scheduled to speak today at 11am. 

Key Earnings Reports Today:

• Fridays are traditionally light on earnings calls, and today is no different. But Bg Lots reports today, and here’s why that’s important:
• Market Sentiment Indicator: Big Lots, as a major closeout retailer, often reflects broader consumer spending trends, particularly among middle-income households. Its performance can signal how discretionary spending is faring, which is crucial for understanding overall retail health.
• Retail Sector Benchmark: Given the retail sector's volatility, Big Lots' earnings provide insights into how discount retail strategies are holding up against economic pressures like inflation, supply chain issues, and shifts in consumer behavior.

The Fed:

• Next Meeting: Scheduled for September 17th and 18th. Expectations are split between lowering rates and maintaining rates, with a hawkish outlook on inflation.

Stocks:

• Top Performing Sectors: Utilities is at 77% and Consumer Staples are at 66% of companies below their 5 day average price.
• Bottom Performing Sector the Last 5 Days: Real Estate is at 48% and Consumer Discretionary is at 35%  of companies below their 5 day average price.

Crypto:

• BTC: Current price $56,023, up 33.61% this year
• ETH: Current price $2,363, up 2.84% this year

Bonds:

• 2-Year Treasury Yield: Open at 3.745%.
• 10-Year Treasury Yield: Open at 3.734%

Gold:

• Open Price: $2520 per ounce, up 22.12% this year, reflecting safe-haven buying amid geopolitical tensions.

Real Estate:

• 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate: 6.35%, down 4.8% this year
• Trends: Shift towards more affordable housing markets, with a notable increase in remote work affecting urban vs. suburban preferences.

Geopolitical Aspects:

• Tensions in Eastern Europe: Ongoing conflicts continue to affect energy prices and market stability.
• US-China Relations: Trade talks influence tech and manufacturing sectors.

Worldwide News:

• Europe: ECB's potential rate hike decision looms, impacting Eurozone markets.
• Asia: Strong economic recovery in China boosts global commodity prices.

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Good morning, Heroes!

Here’s your Morning Market Preview for September 12th, 2024
Read, or listen relaxingly for a few minutes – whichever you prefer!

Key Economic Reports

• Initial Jobless Claims: The market consensus forecasts Initial Jobless Claims at 229,000. This is slightly up from the previous week's actual figure of 227,000, suggesting a modest increase in new unemployment claims.
  
  
• Producer Price Index (PPI): This indicator measures wholesale inflation and is closely watched by investors and economists for signs of upstream price pressures on the companies that produce for consumers further down the line.
  
  
• Core PPI: Analysts and market observers expect a monthly increase of 0.2% for the Core PPI, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy. This expectation reflects a continuation of moderate inflation pressures from the production side. 

Key Events & Earnings Reports Today

Adobe

• Expectations: The consensus expects Adobe to report revenue around $5.37 billion, showcasing a 10% year-over-year growth, driven by strong performance across its product lines, particularly in Creative Cloud and Document Cloud due to AI integration.
  
  

• Importance: The report will be crucial for investor sentiment, especially in the context of Adobe's strategic moves towards AI. Positive results could reinforce confidence in Adobe's strategic direction, potentially leading to stock price increases.
  
  

The Fed

• The Fed's next meeting is scheduled for the 17th and 18th and expectations are that the Fed will cut rates. The market expects a quarter percent cut, but some think a half percent cut and even no cut are possible. Ultimately, the Fed decides and the market reacts, so don’t guess with any significant amount of money. 

Stocks

Year-to-Date Performance:

• Up Most: Utilities & Information Technology continue to have the best 2024 at 20.85% and 20.74%, respectively.
  
  
• Down Most: Materials has now just barely replaced Consumer Discretionary as the second worst sector in 2024, and Energy continues its last place position, up 5.75% and 1.40%, respectively. Of note, the worst sector is still up this year.

5 Day Moving Average: This is the percent of Large Cap stocks above their 5 day average

• Up Most: Real Estate is at 90% the last 5 days, and Tech is at 84%.
  
  

• Down Most: Energy is down to 5% the last 5 days with Consumer Staples now at just 11%, marking a significant downward shift the last 5 days.

Crypto

• Bitcoin: Up to about $57,969 at the open, and is up a whopping 36.85% this year.
  
  
• Ethereum: Also up, at about $2,381 at the open, and is up a modest 1.67% this year.
  
  
• Top Gainers Recently: Bitcoin Cash and Cardano had a good 24 hours, up 3.7% and 2.52% respectively.

Bonds

• 2-Year Treasury Yield: Open at 3.65%, continuing its yield decline this year.
  
  
• 10-Year Treasury Yield: Open at 3.658%, also continuing its yield decline this year.

Gold

• Open Price: $2,516 per ounce, up again, now up a whopping 21.8% this year, driven by safe-haven buying amid economic uncertainties.

Real Estate

• 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate: Down again, now to 6.11%, the rate has dropped about 8.4% this year.
  
  
• Trends: Real estate is local, and each market is seeing different specific conditions. Some report high-end home sales staying strong while others report a weakening there and an improvement in affordable housing sales.

Geopolitical Aspects

• The sentiment around US leadership, including how it handles international relations, trade wars, and domestic policies like inflation control, impacts investor confidence. Discussions around strategic petroleum reserves, border issues, and political stability can lead to market reactions.

Worldwide Market News

• Global markets are reacting to concerns about China’s slowing economic growth and energy price fluctuations, while ongoing conflicts and trade disputes add further uncertainty.

Built for The One in the Arena

Arena Investor is on a mission not only to help with financial planning, and investment management, but also with education. Keep reading, watching, following, and sharing great Arena Investor content. And as always if you want professional advice, we are glad to be your teammate – along a financial journey you can actually enjoy.

You’re the Hero.
    We’re the Guide.

P.S. 

Some Simple Explanations of Key Concepts to Level Up Your Financial Education

PPI: Measures the average change in selling prices received by producers, helping gauge future consumer price changes.

Fed Meeting: The Federal Reserve adjusts interest rates to control inflation and stimulate or cool down the economy.

Treasury Yields: Higher yields indicate that the government is paying more to borrow money, often a sign that inflation or interest rates are rising.

Equities: Stocks represent ownership in a company. Sectors like tech can be volatile but often offer high growth potential, while sectors like utilities are more stable but less growth-oriented.

Cryptocurrencies: Digital currencies like Bitcoin are highly speculative but have delivered strong gains this year.

Gold: Seen as a safe-haven asset, it tends to rise during times of economic uncertainty.

Real Estate: Changing mortgage rates make buying homes more or less expensive, which can cool off or heat up the housing market.

Understanding these elements helps in navigating the financial markets, where each piece of information can be a puzzle piece in predicting market movements or making informed investment decisions.

You’re the Hero.
    We’re the Guide.

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Good morning, Heroes!

Here’s your Morning Market Preview for September 18th, 2024
Read, or listen relaxingly for a few minutes – whichever you prefer!

Key Economic Reports

• Housing Starts, previously 1.24 million, and the market expects 1.31 million in this report.
  
  
• Building Permits, previous 1.4 million, with an expected 1.41 small uptick.
  
  
• FOMC Interest Rate Decision, expected at 2:30pm Eastern.

Key Events & Earnings Reports Today

• Steelcase and Sang Technologies report today, but all eyes are on the Fed.
  
  
• Boeing is in the middle of a strike, and the company has frozen hiring and is discussing furloughs as well. The strike began on September 13th.

The Fed

• Today is the day we likely get our first rate cut since The Fed began hiking rates in March 2022. It was the fastest rate hike in American history. The market hasn’t seen a rate cut since March 2020.

Stocks

Year-to-Date Performance:

• Up Most: Although down just a bit in the last day, Tech leads the pack, up 25.01% this year. Utilities was also down just a tad, but is still the second-best on the year year, up 24.08%.
  
  
• Down Most: Important: no sectors are negative on the year. The smallest gain has been in Energy, up 3.05% this year. Second-to-last is now Consumer Discretionary, up 8.73% this year.

5 Day Moving Average: 

• Up Most: 100% of Energy Large Cap stocks are now above their 5 day average. Materials is close to the top position too, with 96% of its Large Caps above their 5 day average.
  
  

• Down Most: Real Estate stocks have had a bad 5 days, and only 26% of Large Caps are above their 5 day average. Next closest is Health Care at 49%.
  
  
• Overall, investors are trying to position themselves ahead of The Fed’s decision, and in light of some data that the economy is slowing.

Crypto

• Bitcoin: Over the past day, it is up about $60,155, which puts it at a staggering 43% gain on the year.
  
  
• Ethereum: It’s been a good day for Ethereum, and is up to about $2,358, which means a 2.15% gain on the year.
  
  
• Top Gainers Recently: Uniswap is up most as of this report, 7.14% on the day.
  
  
• Important to note: Crypto markets are always open and prices change constantly.

Bonds

• 2-Year Treasury Yield:  At 3.599%, it has continued its yield decline this year.
  
  
• 10-Year Treasury Yield: At 3.644%, it also continues its yield decline this year.

Gold

• Price: Gold was down about 50 basis points the last day, now about $2,569 per ounce, up 24.57% on the year.

Real Estate

• 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate: Down just a bit, now to 6.11%. The mortgage rate has dropped about 8.4% this year.

Geopolitical Aspects

• Tensions in key oil-producing regions impacting energy markets, with potential for new trade agreements influencing global economic stability.
  
  
• Europe: Economic recovery post-COVID, with a focus on green initiatives is affecting various industries.
  
  
• Asia: Growth in tech sectors, while facing challenges from supply chain disruptions due to geopolitical issues continues.

Built for The One in the Arena

Arena Investor is on a mission not only to help with financial planning, and investment management, but also with education. Keep reading, watching, following, and sharing great Arena Investor content. And as always if you want professional advice, we are glad to be your teammate – along a financial journey you can actually enjoy.

You’re the Hero.
    We’re the Guide.

P.S. 

Some Simple Explanations of Key Concepts to Level Up Your Financial Education

• Economic Reports: These are snapshots of the economy's health. For instance, Retail Sales show consumer spending, crucial for economic growth. Industrial Production indicates manufacturing strength.
  ‍
• Federal Reserve (The Fed): This is like the economy's central bank in the U.S. They control interest rates, influencing borrowing costs, which can affect everything from your mortgage to stock prices. A rate cut typically means they want to stimulate economic activity.
  ‍
• 1 Basis Point (BPS) equals 0.01%. And here's why this is useful:

• Precision: Financial changes are often tiny. For example, if an interest rate goes from 3.50% to 3.51%, that's an increase of just 0.01%, or 1 basis point. It's easier to say "1 basis point" than "point zero one percent."
• Clarity: When discussing changes, especially small ones like those in interest rates, basis points avoid confusion. Imagine discussing if a rate changed by 0.1% or 0.01% over the phone. Saying "10 basis points" or "1 basis point" is clear.
• Consistency: It's a universal standard in finance. Whether you're talking about stock returns, bond yields, or central bank rates, basis points keep the conversation standardized.

Each of these elements interacts, creating the dynamic we call 'the market'.

Understanding these aspects of the investing arena can help investors in making informed investment decisions.

You’re the Hero.
    We’re the Guide.